History of land use-transport modeling

# A Brief History

Ever since personal computers became available for academic research, land use/transportation models have been developed. The pioneering work of Herbert and Stevens[1] in cooperation with Britton Harris was fundamental in exploring how computer models may be applied for urban analysis. Though aspatial in its design, the Theory of Urban Interaction developed by Forrester[2] was a milestone in simulating businesses, dwellings and households explicitly. Yet more popularity gained the Lowry Model[3]. Its relatively simple model structure allowed developing many applications, of which some are still in use today.

During the 1970s and 1980s, triggered among others by Lee's Requiem of Large Scale Models[4],a general scepticism prevailed whether integrated models were able to represent complex real-world interactions. To a large extent, integrated modeling retreated to academic projects only.

In the 1990s, a new interest in integrated modeling arose. New model developments at dozens of universities, improved hardware, better data availability and the need of policy makers to understand long-term effects of decision-making promoted an increased acceptance of integrated modeling for urban and regional planning. The 21st century brought a push towards microsimulation aiming at simulating the interaction between individual actors.

This history of integrated land use modeling is described in more detail by Wegener[5]. Some of the most influential models are shown in the table below.

Early Pioneers Revival in 1980's 21st Century
Forrester (early 1960s) → aspatial Anas 1980 (Chicago) Waddell (2000) → UrbanSim
Lowry (1964) → simple, but most popular ever Kain, Apgar 1980 (Chicago, Pittburgh) Miller (2001) → ILUTE
Wilson (1967) → entropy model Wegener 1981 (Dortmund) Simmonds (2001) → DELTA
Putman (1967) → DRAM/EMPAL model Jägemann 1981 (Frankfurt) Hunt (2003) → PECAS
Echenique (1969) → spatial input/output de la Barra 1984 → TRANUS Wegener (2004) → ILUMASS
Brian Gregor (2007) → LUSDR
Moeckel (2017) → SILO

# References

  1. Herbert, John D. and Benjamin H. Stevens (1960) A model for the distribution of residential activity in urban areas. Journal of Regional Science 2: 21-36. ↩︎

  2. Forrester, Jay W. (1969) Urban Dynamics. Cambridge (Massachusetts): The M.I.T. Press. ↩︎

  3. Lowry, Ira S. (1964) A Model of Metropolis. Memorandum RM-4035-RC. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation. ↩︎

  4. Lee Jr., Douglass B. (1973) Requiem for Large-Scale Models. In: Journal of the American Institute of Planners. Vol. 39 (3). 163-178. ↩︎

  5. Wegener (2009): From Macro to Micro – How Much Micro is too Much? Paper presented at the International Seminar on Transport Knowledge and Planning Practice at the University of Amsterdam, 14-16 October 2009. ↩︎