Alternative Futures for Integrated Transportation and Land-Use Models Contrasted with Trend-Delphi Models
Sonny Conder and Keith Lawton
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 1805 (2002). Pages 99-107.
This paper demonstrates the significance of integrating land use with transportation. According to their research, a Delphi Panel initially suggested substantial demand for new housing north of the Columbia River near Portland, OR. Testing this scenario in an integrated land use/transportation model revealed that not quite as many households decided to move north of the Columbia River because congestion on the four bridges across the river made commute travel times prohibitively long. Thereby, the authors have provided a classic example of the land use/transportation feedback cycle. Increased density north of the Columbia River led to additional travel demand, but the congestion reduced the accessibility of neighborhoods north of the Columbia River, which in turn limited the attractiveness of those areas for additional development.
(Abstract written by TFR contributors)
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