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There are a variety of techniques that might apply to any forecast. In addition, techniques may be used in combination to create a forecast. The “tools selection matrix” from NCHRP Report 765 may be used to help identify techniques that have merit for a particular project-level forecast. The figure below is a “tools selection matrix” customized for Hawaii. The “tools selection matrix” is used to both positively and negatively influence the choice of technique.
See NCHRP Report 765 Appendix A for an illustrative example of how to use this matrix. The matrix identifies candidate techniques though this step-by-step process.
- Identify all columns that correspond to the characteristics of the project and the forecast.
- Shade each cell, containing an “X”, in an identified column.
- Tentatively select techniques (rows) that are likely candidates by virtue of the number of shaded cells in their rows.
- For each tentatively selected technique (row), identify contradictions. A contradiction is a cell with an “X” that is not shaded and is deemed critical to the technique.
- Eliminate any technique (row) with a contradiction.
- Review each remaining techniques for applicability to the project forecast.